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About FrankTrollman

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  1. Is it worth carrying Bloody Mary? Bloody Mary forces your opponent to kill it, which means that they have to fight for board position instead of blitzing your face. And if for whatever reason your opponent does not kill Bloody Mary, you can Azazel on top and OTK from there.
  2. It's important to realize that while the number of wins and losses are always the same because there are no ties, each deck is either good or bad. So you're more likely to go 4-1 or 1-4 than your chances of getting 4 heads or 4 tails out of 5 coin flips. So if you were just flipping coins, you'd go 4-1 five in thirty two, but there's skill and deck quality involved so it's considerably higher than that. But yes, in SV T2, there is no matching. You are just as likely to play a new player with a crap deck on your 5th game as you are against some Taker of Two with a super deck.
  3. This is not wrong, because you 100% can redraw cards you elected to not keep. I have had a single copy of a card in my deck, drawn it in the original hand, thrown it away, and then redrawn it immediately. That is a thing that can happen. Once you throw a card away it is shuffled into the rest of your deck and it can just as easily be in the top three cards as it can be in the bottom three cards. There are games where the cards you mulligan away are put on the bottom or shuffled in after you draw, but Shadowverse is not one of them.
  4. The 52.4% comes from the fact that that is the actual value if you go first. Chances of drawing a Prince on the first 3 cards is: 1 - (37/40*36/39*35/38). That's just 1 minus the chances of every card not being Chances of drawing a Prince in the first 6 cards is 1 - (37/40*36/39*35/38*34/37*33/36*32/35). Strike-throughs are because of cross cancellation you can do in order to speed the process. The chances of drawing a Prince in either the first three cards or redrawing all three cards and then drawing three more cards is thus : 1 - (37/40*36/39*35/38 * 34/40*33/39*32/38) which is: 0.52368. Which rounds to 52.4%. That is the answer. You keep doing things that are not mathematically precise to estimate the answer, and you keep getting the wrong answer. The answer is 52.4%.
  5. That's not a meaningful way to look at things. There are decks that want to go first and decks that want to go second. A class wants to go second if and only if a majority of the played decks in the class want to go second. Azazel OTK wants to go second and Aggro Blood wants to go first, and both of those are Blood decks. Both of those are positive winrate Blood decks. But more people play Aggro Blood than play Azazel OTK, so the overall class stats say that Aggro wins more going first than going second. But in any particular game you don't play or play against a class as a whole, you play or play against an individual deck.
  6. No. Here let me help you.
  7. That's ridiculous. Lucifer isn't even a bad card by himself. 8 PP for an evolved Sybil that heals you an extra one per turn is sometimes what you need in a race, and a 9/8 Rush that does 4 to the face for 8 PP and an Evo point is sometimes all you need to set up a storm win the following turn. Lucifer is worth running without Sahaquiel, and I do. Probably not as good as Ouroboros on the balance, but if you don't have extra copies of Ouroboros and you do have a Lucifer there's no shame in running it. But the bottom line is that if you have individual cards that are bad without drawing a specific combo you are reliant on drawing a specific combo to not brick and you're bringing the consistency of your deck down.
  8. Zell is often used in Storm Ramp because you need two cost followers and it would be nice for them to not be dead later in the game. Also because you already are running Ouroboros and Sybil, and giving them Storm is a fine way to crash some extra damage to face. Or you can use Maelstrom Dragons, which is just two points of storm damage from your 2-drop, but at least it doesn't cost Evo points. Or you can use Shapeshifter Mage, because he's a must-kill that turns into a 5/5 that is Urd Stormable if your opponent leaves it alone. Really depends on what you want to spend Evo points on.
  9. Well, that's disputable. Historically, Storm Ramp is the deck that uses Storm followers like Forte, Genesis Dragon and now Dragoon Scyther with ramp, wards, and healing in between to get to the Genesis Dragons or Forte-Urd turns. It existed before Zell existed and has always had a good win rate. It's just better and more common now that it has Dragoon Scyther and Sybil to have better Storm and better Ramp. Example: Here. Sahaquiel Bahamut is normally listed as regular Ramp. Whether it uses Zell on top of that for a three card finisher combo or not, that's still just one of the regular Ramp Dragon builds. Ramp Dragon overall has a winrate of 49.8% and there is no particular evidence that anyone has provided that the Sahaquiel or Zell package does better than that. And yet, sometimes people also talk about Sahaquiel decks as Storm Ramp. Example: Here. Now if you were to say that we need to get better Ramp Dragon breakdowns so that we can see whether Ouroboros Zell decks or Sahaquiel Israfil decks are bringing the win average up or down, I would agree with you. Shadowlog lists over seventeen thousand games of "Ramp Dragon" and very obviously that is including some very different builds. I would be very surprised if some of the builds in there weren't running with high win rates while others had low win rates - it's only the aggregate of all Ramp Dragon decks that are winning almost precisely 50% of the time. And when people show examples of "Storm Ramp" some of them look a lot like the Storm Ramp decks of old, and others look like various normal Ramp decks. Which means that a lot of those "Storm Ramp" wins are actually just regular ramp deck wins and people mark them down as Stormy because they got finished off by Forte or something. But the bottom line is that the Zell decks you are ranting about are currently somewhere in the big blob of Ramp Dragon decks. There isn't good evidence that they have a monstrously high win rate. There isn't actually evidence that they have a positive winrate, though it's certainly possible that they do.
  10. Yeeeeah? So what? Seriously, so what? First of all, you were complaining about master rank and you posted a picture that is not from master rank. But regardless, how is a win rate under 51% against Blood a problem? What exactly is the problem with a craft versus craft winrate of 50.4%? Don't just keep pointing out that it's more than half. Yes, we can all see that while it's a rounding error away from exactly half it is positive. So what?
  11. Dragon's winrates aren't unreasonable though. The only class that loses 60% of the time to Dragon is Rune. Yes, sorry, Rune sucks right now. No one has put together a successful Ginger Rune deck, the old Daria decks are outclassed and don't benefit from any new cards, D-**** is too weak against both Ramp Dragon and all forms of Shadow, and the new Dirt Rune decks are all still too inconsistent. Rune isn't good enough. But you can't look at Dragon's 50.4% winrate against Blood and say that's a gross imbalance and the sky is falling and nerfs are needed. Well, you can, but you'll look ridiculous.
  12. If you define a 51% winrate as overpowered you are going to have a bad time.
  13. Sure Here You Go. That deck runs 3 Alberts, you have 2. Replace the other one with Monika or a third Luminous Mage. It's worse, but those cards are also high impact when you evolve them. That deck also has some gold cards: 3 Alwidas Command, 3 Grimnirs, and a Fangblade Slayer. I don't know how short of that you are or how much of it you can craft. Budget replacements are available, or you could sub in some other Golds if you got em. Odin doesn't do a terrible impersonation of a Fang Blade Slayer if it comes to that.
  14. Because selective memory. Your tirade about how Zell decks were overpowered and going to ruin the game has not aged well because Ramp Dragon has a 50% winrate. Your tirade about how Prince Catacomb Aggro was overpowered and ruining the game has aged OK because that deck is actually enjoying a high winrate. If you make a bunch of hasty predictions and then claim credit for the ones that are plausibly right and just stop talking about your claims that are obviously wrong, then you aren't an oracle. You're a huckster.
  15. Without the combo, Sahaquiel is a 7 PP 4/4. In what universe is that not a suboptimal card that you are taking to make a specific strategy work? Tournaments are weird beasts, because the number of games you play is much less than the number of games you play on Ladder. You are in essence testing the number of streaks not the overall winrate. So a deck that is less consistent but more powerful is more likely to win a tournament. If you're fine with Sahaquiel being a dead card in your hand 42% of the time when you have the PP to play it, by all means play with 6 Neutral Legendaries.